Week 8 Best Bets: Lions, Commanders & More NFL Picks

Last week was not my best showing. I went just 1-3-1, with my lone win being the Bengals. They cruised past the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens pretty comfortably, despite trailing 13-0 at halftime. The Lions also pushed at -3.0, though my sympathy goes out to anyone who took them at -3.5.

On the other side, the Texans and Raiders were flat-out bad picks. The Texans are simply not the same team that they were last year, and we need to stop treating them as such. The Raiders were up against a desperate Rams side, who turned in one of their most impressive performances of the year.

My third loss was the Titans, and that one ultimately felt like it could go either way. Deshaun Watson continues to stumble through most of the first three quarters before finding a way to pull games out in the end. I don’t think that’s a particularly sustainable formula, but it didn’t matter vs. Tennessee.

Overall, our record in this column moves to 18-16-1. We’re still above .500, but another 4-1 or 5-0 would feel really good right about now.

We now shift our focus to Week 8, and we have another four squads on bye (49ers, Giants, Saints, and Texans). However, it is our first Sunday without an overseas game in a while, so the main slate is a bit larger than in recent weeks.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for NFL Week 8.

NFL Best Bets For Week 8

Detroit Lions (-3.0) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Best Odds: -120; DraftKings
Play To: -3.0 (-120) or -3.5 (-105)

The Lions were either a push or a loss last week, depending on what number you got vs. the Packers. That said, they pretty thoroughly dismantled their division rivals. They outgained them by nearly 100 yards, but two lost fumbles and two failed fourth-down conversions ultimately kept the game competitive.

A more encouraging sign was the defense's improvement. They’re still not going to be the 1986 Bears or 2000 Ravens, but they might not be a complete disaster on that side of the ball. Getting back Brian Branch at safety could be a gamechanger, and he had a pick in his first game back. The Lions have one of the best offenses in football, so if their defense isn’t dreadful, they should win a lot of games.

On the other side, the Vikings are surprisingly the last undefeated team in the NFL. That said, everyone knows that they have been fortunate. They’ve breezed through a cupcake schedule, and even then, things haven’t come easy. Four of their six wins are by one score, including wins over the Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Colts. Even their one “impressive” win this season – a 39-22 victory over the Packers – was clearly fluky; they were outgained by nearly 200 yards.

The Vikings are a clear regression candidate, and this will be their toughest test of the year. Their offense has been one of the worst in football this season, ranking 29th in yards per game and EPA per play. If they don’t play better on that side of the ball this week, the Lions could win this one comfortably.

Washington Commanders (-5.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Best Odds: -110; FanDuel
Play To: -6.5 (-110)

The Eagles’ season is in complete disarray. Their offense was already struggling to move the ball, and things are only going to get worse with Jalen Hurts out of the picture. Tanner McKee has struggled mightily in his stead, averaging just 5.3 adjusted yards per attempt.

Making matters worse, Saquon Barkley is also at less than 100%. He returned to the lineup last week but was limited to just 10 offensive snaps. He missed the entire fourth quarter after reportedly picking up a new injury, this time to his back. While Barkley seems likely to suit up vs. the Commanders, how much he’ll be on the field remains to be seen.

The Eagles’ defense has carried them in years past, but they are not the same unit this season. They just allowed 38 points to the Cowboys, and while Dallas has an elite offense, that performance wasn’t an anomaly. Philly is 25th in EPA per play defensively for the year, so they’re not going to be able to pick up the slack for the team’s offensive shortcomings.

It feels bizarre to back the Commanders as a pretty big favorite, but it’s warranted with what the Eagles have done this season. Washington nearly beat the Eagles back in Week 1, and that was on the road with the Eagles at full strength. The Commanders’ offense has moved the ball with Jayden Daniels in the lineup this season, and I see no reason why they can’t do the same on Sunday. If that’s the case, I don’t know how Philly keeps up.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Odds: -110; DraftKings
Play To: -118

This is a surprise showdown between the two leaders in the AFC North. They both enter this game at 5-2, putting them slightly ahead of the Bengals (4-2) and Ravens (4-3). While it seems unlikely that they finish the year in the same position, whoever wins this contest will have a good shot at making the playoffs.

The Steelers have been impressive of late, rattling off three straight wins vs. the Colts, Buccaneers, and Saints. Their defense has been stout, while Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best football he has in years. Jaylen Warren has helped carry things out of the backfield, while Germie Bernard has given the team some juice at receiver.

They feel like the better team in this contest. The Browns’ winning formula doesn’t feel particularly sustainable. They’ve needed a game-winning fourth-quarter drive in all five of their wins, and they have a -13 point differential for the year. That gives them an expected record of just 3.1-3.9.

Still, getting more than a field goal in this spot feels like too much. Divisional games tend to be lower scoring, and these teams have plenty of familiarity. The Browns have already beaten the Steelers once this season, and I expect the rematch to be close. Despite Rodgers’ recent play, he doesn’t have a great track record as a favorite over the past few seasons. He’s just 10-12 ATS when laying more than a FG since 2022-23, so I’ll grab the three points in this matchup.

New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Best Odds: -106; Caesars
Play To: -110

I think the Jets are clearly building something. They have a bunch of strong pieces on their roster, and they’re only going to get better this offseason. They could have three picks inside the top half of the first round, which could land them a potential franchise QB. The Jets have been searching for that guy for roughly 50 years, but maybe this is the draft that finally changes. The team’s fans can only hope.

One thing that is certain is that the team will probably have a new head coach next season. Aaron Glenn just doesn’t seem to have it. His abysmal track record at the end of the first half has cost the team nearly 100 points since taking over as head coach:

The #Jets have been outscored 107-6 in the final two minutes of the first half under HC Aaron Glenn. Mike Tomlin: “If I were them, I would do two-minute every day of my life until further notice.” 💀 https://t.co/iRkgCJYwEe
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 26, 2026

Glenn is still around for the time being, which obviously doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in their improvement moving forward. Still, I think this Jets team is talented enough to win in spite of him.

The Raiders got off to a flying start this season, but their performances aren’t very impressive in retrospect. Their three wins are against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints, who are a combined 3-16 this season. They’ve followed that up with four consecutive losses, albeit against a quartet of good teams (Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams).

Ultimately, I think the Raiders are a mediocre team that got inflated in the eyes of the public after their 3-0 start. I don’t see a ton of difference between them and the Jets; in fact, the Jets are probably better. As long as Glenn doesn’t actively sabotage them once again this week, I think they should pull out the victory.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) at Buffalo Bills

Best Odds: -105; BetMGM
Play To: -110

We’re riding the Lamar Jackson rollercoaster once again this week. I fully expected him to play in Week 6, but he ultimately missed the entire week of practice and was ruled out on Friday. He seemed certain to return after suiting up at practice last week, but he missed another contest.

Jackson was a full participant at practice to start Week 8, and the reports indicate that he will be back in the lineup vs. the Bills. We can only hope that’s the case, but I’m going to take their word for it. As long as it’s true, I love the idea of backing Jackson as an underdog in this spot.

For starters, Jackson has a great track record. He’s 3-1 ATS during the regular season vs. Josh Allen, and he’s 9-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points. It’s rare to get a QB of this caliber at such a good price tag, so I’m not passing it up.

While Allen has been Superman for the Bills this season, the rest of the team has been a bunch of Clark Kents. Specifically, their defense has been horrendous. They’re dead last in EPA per play defensively, and they rank 25th or worse against the run and the pass. The Ravens’ defense hasn’t been elite this season, but it has been markedly better than that.

Ultimately, both of these offenses should have plenty of success in this contest, but I trust the Ravens to make one more stop than the Bills. That’s enough to push me to the underdog.