Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 8

Jacksonville hosts division rival Indianapolis fresh off a bye just as the Colts decide to start the fire sale. Very rarely does a point spread move two full points without QB-related news, but that’s precisely what happened after Indy shipped off a pair of Pro-Bowlers on Tuesday.

Jaguars vs. Colts Matchup Breakdown For Week 8 Fantasy Football

Spread: Jaguars -9.5
Total: 46.5
Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): GB 26, CAR 20

*Fantasy Football Rankings listed are Fantasy Life's half-PPR consensus ranks at the time of writing.

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview For Week 8

Everything must go … our prices are INSANE! (which apparently includes any sort of fantasy hopes attached to this Colts squad)

In a matter of a few short hours, Indy jettisoned DT DeForest Buckner and G Quenton Nelson for draft picks, leaving both sides of the ball at a measurable disadvantage. Hard to quantify the precise impact of losing Nelson, though it’s hard to imagine not dinging already low projections for both phases of the offense. Daniel Jones currently ranks as the QB26, which drops all the way to QB39 on a points/game basis (9.2). Ugh. At 5.9 yards/attempt and a 69.2 passer rating without a single top-15 finish to date, it’s almost impossible to start any pass catchers in blue and white.

Seven weeks into the season for a losing team in consistently negative game scripts without a single top-15 WR finish or score over 16.5 points is a travesty. Keenan Allen and Josh Downs still run all the routes, earning at least 6.6 targets/game, but the low aDOTs plus poor accuracy numbers drag everyone down with the ship. I’d be fine moving on from them in 10-team leagues, but I also understand the necessity of a desperation flex start during bye weeks. Jacksonville boasts a dangerous front-seven and a top-3 scoring defense — expect them to attack Indy’s weakness in the trenches early and often.

If there’s a lone bright spot left on the Colts, it’s Jonathan Taylor. Currently fantasy’s RB5, JT’s averaging 19.6 points/game on an elite 81% backfield opportunity share with 8 TDs — So face facts, we’re stuck starting him no matter what. Indy’s front office came out today declaring definitively that Taylor won’t be moved before the deadline, but I’m not buying it.

Position yourself to add Seth McGowan. The seventh-round rookie out of Kentucky’s a physical freak who passed his on-the-job training Sunday, turning 12 touches into 48 yards in a loss to Minnesota. If you ask me, the Colts feel like they’ve seen enough from McGowan to keep wheeling and dealing if the right offer arises.

Start: Jonathan Taylor (RB12), Keenan Allen (WR31)
Sit: Daniel Jones (QB28)
Sleeper: Josh Downs (WR34)

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview For Week 8

Timing’s everything in life, perhaps double in fantasy. Jacksonville’s fresh off a bye, having won three of four with one of the most balanced teams in the league — they’re one of only seven teams boasting positive EPA on both sides of the ball. Jags look especially sharp on offense, led by Trevor Lawrence, fantasy’s QB10 in points/game (19.0) by way of strong underpinning statistics (0.19 EPA/dropback, 106.2 passer rating, 8.0 yards/attempt, 44.6% throws to sticks, 38.6% first down rate, 5.2% sack). Also worth pointing out JAX’s recent competition as a far cry from Indy’s bottom-5 defense, now without their best player up the middle.

After weeks of frustrating holding calls constantly ripping TDs off the board, Bhayshul Tuten finally broke through for a top-3 weekly finish (12-39-0; 4-48-2). It’s about time. The second-year fourth-rounder out of Virginia Tech averages just under 18 touches/game for 66% of the Jags backfield opportunities, including insane after-contact numbers, ~8% of team target share plus an equal share of goal-line carries. Looking back, Tuten’s 14.7 points/game feels a bit cheated, but it’s coming. Thankfully, Liam Coen iced any third-stringers from touching the ball for three games running. I’d consider the rare buy-high attempt if I felt Tuten’s available for trade.

Parker Washington unsurprisingly leads the way in the JAX receiving room, earning 7.7 targets/game on standout advanced metrics (26.4% target/route, 2.39 yards/route) — and the best is yet to come. Jakobi Meyers projects a bit lower each week but still deserves a weekly flex spot since he’s leading such a strong squad in end zone targets (6). His ceiling’s increasingly capped, however, with the recent emergence of Brenton Strange over the last three weeks, who’s creeping closer to P-Wash in the pecking order during that same timeframe (7.7 targets/game, 28.0% target/route, 2.52 yards/route). Crazy that Strange owns just a 51% rostership rate when it should be much closer to universal.

Hard to start anyone else given the Jags’ D plays their own suppressive role here, keeping the team out of shootouts. Speaking of defense, Travis Hunter not only posted his best offensive game of the season (4-59-1) but did it while playing 98% of snaps at CB. Not sure how sustainable that is or if it’ll even happen again — but it’s enough to knock me out of the running for Josh Cameron’s services.

Start: Trevor Lawrence (QB5), Bhayshul Tuten (RB16), Parker Washington (WR11), Brenton Strange (TE11)
Sit: Chris Rodriguez (RB39)
Sleeper: Jakobi Meyers (WR41)