Upgrades For Week 8 Wide Receiver Rankings: Zay Flowers, George Pickens & More

Let's get into the Week 8 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 8 favorites and fades.

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Week 8 Wide Receiver Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	CHI
2	Puka Nacua	LA	LAC
3	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	TEN
4	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	ARI
5	Zay Flowers	BAL	BUF
6	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	MIN
7	Christian Watson	GB	CAR
8	Justin Jefferson	MIN	DET
9	Drake London	ATL	TB
10	Parker Washington	JAC	IND
11	Tee Higgins	CIN	TEN
12	Matthew Golden	GB	CAR
13	George Pickens	DAL	ARI
14	Ladd McConkey	LAC	LA
15	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	GB
16	Jalen Coker	CAR	GB
17	DJ Moore	BUF	BAL
18	A.J. Brown	NE	MIA
19	Keenan Allen	IND	JAC
20	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	LV
21	Luther Burden	CHI	SEA
22	Michael Wilson	ARI	DAL
23	DK Metcalf	PIT	CLE
24	Josh Downs	IND	JAC
25	Stefon Diggs	WAS	PHI
26	Jameson Williams	DET	MIN
27	Omar Cooper	NYJ	LV
28	Tre Tucker	LV	NYJ
29	KC Concepcion	CLE	PIT
30	Germie Bernard	PIT	CLE
31	Carnell Tate	TEN	CIN
32	Emeka Egbuka	TB	ATL
33	Denzel Boston	CLE	PIT
34	Rome Odunze	CHI	SEA
35	Quentin Johnston	LAC	LA
36	Antonio Williams	WAS	PHI

Week 8 Matchup Upgrades: Zay Flowers at Bills & George Pickens vs. Cardinals

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bills and Cardinals are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.

Bills: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+8.7)
Cardinals: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (34.9%)

Bang a gong.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Bills: I highlighted Flowers as a fantasy favorite last week, and even without QB Lamar Jackson (ankle), he went off (23.7 fantasy points, 8-137-1 receiving, 11 targets). The setup for the Ravens is suboptimal: The Bills are home off the bye, and the Ravens are on their third road game in four weeks. But the Ravens (in my opinion) are priced right now as if Jackson will play, which would be a boon for Flowers, who this year has been productively prolific (17.0 fantasy points per game, 40-608-3 receiving, 53 targets with 3-34-0 rushing) and efficiently explosive (11.5 yards per target). He's the No. 10 WR in WOPR (68%). The Bills are without SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (suspension), and Flowers flashed in his one game last year against the Bills (24.6 fantasy points, 7-143-1 receiving, 9 targets with 2-8-0 rushing).

You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

George Pickens (Cowboys) vs. Cardinals: He's not No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb, but Pickens has picked it up since Week 4 (14.0 fantasy points per game, 21-335-2 receiving, 33 targets, 77 Utilization Score) after a slow start in Weeks 1-3 (7.7 fantasy points per game, 16-150-0 receiving, 25 targets, 69 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The setup for the Cowboys is good. Although they're losing a day coming off Monday Night Football, they're indoors at home, where they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass). The Cards are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs (56.6%), and they could be without CB Max Melton (knee) and FS Andrew Wingard (knee) on top of No. 1 CB Will Johnson (neck, IR).

Week 8 Scoring Upgrades: Tee Higgins vs. Titans & A.J. Brown at Dolphins

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WRs."

This week, the Bengals are No. 2 in implied team total (28.5); the Patriots, No. 5 (26.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Titans: Although Higgins is the Don Felder to Ja'Marr Chase's Joe Walsh, he's still a helluva guitarist in his own right. In fact, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Higgins (14.3 fantasy points per game, 33-571-2 receiving, 50 targets, 81 Utilization Score), and not Chase (13.5 fantasy points per game, 32-351-5 receiving, 45 targets, 71 Utilization Score), were the No. 1 WR for the Bengals this year … and you might not be wrong. The Bengals are slate-best -10.5 home favorites, QB Joe Burrow has dominated against non-divisional opponents (40-17-2 ATS, 33.3% ROI, per Action Network), and the Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (32.9%).

A.J. Brown (Patriots) at Dolphins: Brown has done almost nothing since returning from injury in Week 6 (5.2 fantasy points per game, 6-75-0 receiving, 16 targets), but his usage in that span has been strong (94% route rate, 46% air yard share, 33% end zone target share), and we know that Brown objectively is a good player (9.7 yards per target for career). At some point, he'll have a big game. Why not this week? The Pats have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, QB Drake Maye tends to crush in division (9-3 ATS, 43.0% ROI) and the Dolphins are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.298).

Week 8 Indoors Upgrades: Justin Jefferson at Lions & Michael Wilson at Cowboys

In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at Lions: This season, the Vikings defense is stealing the show from Jefferson. His underlying usage is still good (36% air yard share, 50% end zone target share), as is his efficiency (9.7 yards per target), but his production has fallen off (12.1 fantasy points per game, 23-302-3 receiving, 31 targets). Still, this might be a spot where he's able to do damage, as the Lions are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (34.1%). Over the past five years, the Lions have had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and this is their second straight home game, but the Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. Plus, divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI), QB Kyler Murray as a road dog has been exceptional (29-13-2 ATS, 32.2% ROI), and the Lions could be without CB Ennis Rakestraw (ankle) on top of FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP).

Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Cowboys: Neither the production (9.1 fantasy points per game, 37-375-1 receiving, 66 targets) nor the efficiency (5.7 yards per target) has been up to par for Wilson this season, but his usage remains intact (93% route rate, 35% air yard share, 32% end zone target share). The Cowboys have a boosted home-field advantage because the Cardinals are outside division and on turf (vs. grass), but at least they're indoors, and they have a one-day edge over the Cowboys coming off Monday Night Football. What's more: The Cowboys are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.274) and could be without LB Dee Winters (calf) in addition to SS Jalen Thompson (hamstring, IR) and No. 3 S P.J. Locke (foot, IR).

Week 8 Injury Upgrades: Chris Godwin vs. Falcons & Savion Williams vs. Panthers

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.

Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) vs. Falcons: Godwin did almost nothing in QB Baker Mayfield's return to action last week (4.7 fantasy points, 4-27-0 receiving, 5 targets), but that's because the Bucs did almost nothing in the pass game (64 yards, 1 TD, 11 attempts) as they laughed their way to a 43-13 blowout. If we look at Godwin's Week 7 usage (92% route rate, 56% target share), it's great. No. 1 WR Emeka Egbuka (concussion, toe) missed last week, as did Falcons CB Billy Bowman, who plays primarily in the slot, where Godwin lines up most. If both guys were to miss Week 8, Godwin could go off. For the Bucs, this is their fifth home game in seven weeks.

Savion Williams (Packers) vs. Panthers: How DARE you accuse me of being a TCU homer! I wouldn't have even known that Williams went to TCU if you hadn't have mentioned it. Anyway, Williams missed Weeks 1-5 to injury, but over the past two games he has functioned as the clear No. 3 WR for the Packers (64% route rate, 37 Utilization Score). That's not sexy, but he has at least done a little something with his opportunities (6.4 fantasy points per game, 7-79-0 receiving, 7 targets), he has been efficient (11.3 yards per target) and he has gotten some work on the ground (4-13-0 rushing). With No. 2 WR Matthew Golden (shoulder, foot) looking unlikely to play, Williams has an opportunity to earn extra work this week, and that might be meaningful against the Panthers, who could be without CB Akayleb Evans (triceps) on top of CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR) and Mike Jackson (groin, IR). The Packers are playing their third game in four weeks at home, where they have a boosted edge against the Panthers because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). This might sound wild, but I can almost imagine a universe in which I consider starting Williams in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Notes

Week 8 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants, and Texans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.